Ukraine wins by enduring, by staying sovereign, by anchoring itself to Europe.

Putin frames this as Russia vs. Ukraine. But game theory tells a different story: the real conflict involves five players – and the outcome will be decided by whether unity holds between Europe, Ukraine, and the U.S. Congress. We are now in a five-player game:

Ukraine – fighting for survival and sovereignty.
Russia – demanding five regions it cannot fully control.
Europe – united in defense of international law.
Trump – chasing speed, glory, and perhaps a Nobel Prize.
Congress – aligned with Europe and Ukraine, holding the purse strings.


And here’s the key: Trump cannot ignore Congress. His overriding priority is the 2026 midterms, where Republican control of the House and Senate will be decided. If Republicans lose, his presidency is crippled. Nothing would hurt him more than being remembered as the man who handed Ukraine to Putin.

1. The 2026 Midterms. Trump himself is not on the ballot, but his agenda is. Every calculation he makes now is about keeping Republican control of Congress.
2. The Nobel Prize. No statesman in Oslo will reward the man who legitimized an invasion. The only path to a peace prize runs through a deal that Zelensky, Europe, and Congress can live with – not one that cements Russia’s claims.
3. The Melania Factor. Even inside the Trump household, the pressure tilts toward Ukraine.


The Structure of the Game: Ukraine seeks a ceasefire along current frontlines – survival, sovereignty, and security guarantees. Russia seeks permanent recognition of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Europe insists on unity and the defense of sovereignty. Trump wants a quick, headline-worthy deal. Congress provides the money and legitimacy, and is not willing to reward aggression.


This creates overlapping coalitions:

Ukraine + Europe + Congress form the real alliance.
Trump + Putin may flirt, but their goals diverge: Putin wants land, Trump wants applause.
The Most Likely Outcome
Game theory points to one equilibrium:

Russia keeps de facto control of the territories it occupies, but without recognition. Call it “East Ukraine” – recognized only by Russia, North Korea, and a few dictatorships. Ukraine secures security guarantees, weapons, and deeper integration with Europe. Trump sells this as “peace” to American voters and to Congress, claiming credit without giving Putin the prize he craves. Europe and Congress lock in the Western position: sovereignty is non-negotiable, and aggression is never rewarded.

The Real Victory

Ukraine wins by enduring, by staying sovereign, by anchoring itself to Europe. Russia loses by being reduced to a pariah, clutching an “East Ukraine” no one else will recognize. And Trump? He may get his deal and even his Oslo trip – but only because Zelensky will have written the script.

In the end, Ukraine’s victory will not be written in Moscow. It will be written by the unity of Kyiv, Europe, and Congress – and by the failure of Putin’s game.